The 2026 NFL potential customers have been able to put plenty on film this previous college football season, and Fernando Mendoza has actually risen above the pack after leading Indiana to their first National Championship.

In an unexpected turn of events, forecasted No. 2 quarterback Dante Moore chose to return to Oregon for his senior year.

Moore has actually been buffooned to the New york city Jets with the 2nd general choice for a while now, and his announcement leaves the Jets in limbo.

Here's a look at the chances to go No. 1 general after his statement:

2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds

Fernando Mendoza

-20000

Arvell Reese

David Bailey

+8000

Ty Simpson

+10000

Caleb Downs

Rueben Bain Jr.

+12500

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-20000) is the clear favorite to be picked initially overall in the 2026 NFL Draft with about four months. Moore's statement dropped Mendoza's odds from -1000, all the way to -20000.

The Cal-transfer has transformed Indiana's team from a strong, defensive-minded system last year to a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. Mendoza has an NFL construct, standing at 6'5, and weighing 225 pounds.

He's finished 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 backyards, 33 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while leading the Hoosiers to a 13-0 record, a Huge Ten Championship, the National Championship, and the No. 1 seed going into the playoff.

After Moore's announcement, Arvell Reese leapt up to No. 2 at +8000. The Buckeyes linebacker, is an alien that can play off-the-ball linebacker or line up on the edge and hurry the QB.

He's exceptionally strong, quick, and agile and was appearing all over the tape through the beginning portions of the season, but hasn't been as efficient in the back half.

Texas Tech's David Bailey's chances have likewise jumped after a great efficiency at the NFL Combine.

The pass rusher stands 6' 3" tall, and 250 pounds. in 2025 he racked up 14.5 sacks and three required fumbles, and has gone beyond Rueben Bain Jr who has been docked by scouts for having much shorter arms than traditional elite pass rushes.

Alabama's Simpson (+10000) is the second QB on this list after bring a Crimson Tide offense that can barely run the ball. The junior has 3,268 passing backyards and 26 goals while tossing 5 choices.

Simpson is smooth and precise with a quick throwing motion that needs to translate well to the NFL.

Ohio State's safety Caleb Downs (+12500) is a projected top-ten pick due to his football IQ and do-it-all playstyle where he can cover on the back-end, and come near lay the boom on a running back like a linebacker.

Another protective player with +125000 odds to go primary is Miami's defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. The Hurricane is 6'3, 275 pounds and has tape-recorded 4.5 sacks and 7.5 takes on for loss while forcing a fumble and getting an interception and has dominated in the playoffs.

Arch Manning was the preseason odds-on preferred to go No. 1, but after a slower year than anticipated he plans to return to Texas for another season.

Miami (FL) vs. Indiana: 2026 Championship Game Preview.